Published Papers

• "Behavioral Signatures of Cognitive Noise" , Ryan Oprea, Michael Woodford, Annual Review of Economics, forthcoming
• "Incentives and Strategic Behaviour: An Experiment" , Teresa Esteban-Casanelles, Duarte Gonçalves, Experimental Economics, forthcoming
• "Sources of Imprecision in Integrated Value Comparisons" , Giulia Mezzadri, Michael Woodford, Cognition, October 2026
• "Information-Constrained Coordination of Economic Behavior" , Guy Aridor, Rava Azeredo da Silveira, Michael Woodford, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, March 2025
• "The Status Quo and Belief Polarization of Inattentive Agents: Theory and Experiment" , Vladimír Novák, Andrei Matveenko, Silvio Ravaioli, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, November 2024
• "Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts" , Rava Azeredo da Silveira, Yeji Sung, Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, October 2024
• "Imprecise probabilistic inference from sequential data" , Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford, Psychological Review, 2024
• "Experimental Tests of Rational Inattention" , Mark Dean, Nathaniel Neligh, Journal of Political Economy, December 2023
• "Rational Inattention when Decisions Take Time" , Benjamin Hébert, Michael Woodford, Journal of Economic Theory, March 2023
• "The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs" , Brandon K. Ashinoff, Justin Buck, Michael Woodford, Guillermo Horga, PLOS Computational Biology, December 2022
• "Rationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon Entropy" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, John Leahy, Journal of Political Economy, June 2022
• "Outlier Blindness: A Neurobiological Foundation for Neglect of Financial Risk" , Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Michael Woodford, Journal of Financial Economics, March 2022
• "Neighborhood-Based Information Costs" , Ben Hébert, Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, October 2021
• "Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion" , Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, Michael Woodford, Review of Economic Studies, July 2021
• "Individual Differences in the Perception of Probability" , Mel Win Khaw, Luminita Stevens, Michael Woodford, PLOS Computational Biology, April 2021
• "Endogenous Quantal Response Equilibrium" , Evan Friedman, Games and Economic Behavior, November 2020
• "Estimating Information Cost Functions in Models of Rational Inattention" , Ambuj Dewan, Nathaniel Neligh, Journal of Economic Theory, May 2020
• "Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation and Choice" , Michael Woodford, Annual Review of Economics, May 2020
• "Rational Inattention, Optimal Consideration Sets and Stochastic Choice" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, John Leahy, Review of Economic Studies, May 2019
• "Diverse Motives for Human Curiosity" , Kenji Kobayashi, Silvio Ravaioli, Adrien Baranes, Michael Woodford, Jacqueline Gottlieb, Nature Human Behaviour, April 2019
• "Temporal Discounting and Search Habits: Evidence for a Task-Dependent Relationship" , Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, Michael Woodford, Frontiers in Psychology: Decision Neuroscience, November 2018
• "Discrete Adjustment to a Changing Environment: Experimental Evidence" , Mel Win Khaw, Luminita Stevens, Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics, December 2017
• "Limited Attention and Status Quo Bias" , Mark Dean, Özgür Kıbrıs, Yusufcan Masatlioglu, Journal of Economic Theory, May 2017
• "Satisficing and Stochastic Choice" , Victor H. Aguiar, Maria Jose Boccardi, Mark Dean, Journal of Economic Theory, November 2016
• "Revealed Preference, Rational Inattention and Costly Information Acquisition" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, American Economic Review, July 2015
• "Stochastic Choice: An Optimizing Neuroeconomic Model" , Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, January 2014
• "The Price of Flexibility: Towards a Theory of Thinking Aversion" , Pietro Ortoleva, Journal of Economic Theory, May 2013
• "Prospect Theory as Efficient Perceptual Distortion" , Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, May 2012
• "Search and Satisficing" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, Daniel Martin, American Economic Review, December 2011
• "Search, Choice and Revealed Preference" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, Theoretical Economics, January 2011
• "Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing" , Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics, June 2009

Working Papers

• "Recovering Preferences from Mistakes: An Auxiliary Task Approach" , Hanyao Zhang, September 2026
• "Is Complexity the Problem? Testing Random Choice with Heterogeneity" , Shuhua Si, May 2026
• "Reference Points as Information" , Mark Dean, Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Pietro Ortoleva, March 2026
• "Calculations Behind Lottery Valuations" , Hanyao Zhang, November 2025
• "Cognitive Imprecision and Stake-Dependent Risk Attitudes" , Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, Michael Woodford, September 2024
• "Rational Choice Overload" , Lucas de Lara, Mark Dean, May 2024
• "Sequential Sampling Equilibrium" , Duarte Gonçalves, November 2022
• "Optimal Evidence Accumulation and Stochastic Choice" , Michael Woodford, August 2016
• "Inattentive Valuation and Reference Dependent Choice" , Michael Woodford, May 2012
• "Inattention as a Source of Random Discrete Adjustments" , Michael Woodford, April 2008

Published Papers

• "Macroeconomic Expectations and Cognitive Noise" , Yeji Sung, American Economic Review, forthcoming
• "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money" , Hassan Afrouzi, Journal of Political Economy, October 2024
• "Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight" , Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie, Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2022
• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Housing" , Klaus Adam, Michael Woodford, Journal of Economic Theory, December 2021
• "Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News" , Rava Azaredo da Silveira, Michael Woodford, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019
• "Policy Options at the Zero Lower Bound when Foresight is Limited" , Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019
• "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis" , Mariana García-Schmidt, Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, January 2019
• "Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite" , Michael Woodford, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, April 2018
• "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis" , Michael Woodford, Annual Review of Economics, August 2013
• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a Microfounded New Keynesian Model" , Klaus Adam, Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012
• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations" , Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, March 2010

Working Papers

• "What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?" , Hassan Afrouzi, Joel P. Flynn, Choongryul Yang, June 2024
• "Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve" , Hassan Afrouzi, Choongryul Yang, December 2020
• "Deeper Habits" , Mel Win Khaw, Oskar Zorrilla, November 2018

Published Papers

• "Econographics" , Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg, Colin Camerer, Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, January 2023
• "The Empirical Relationship Between Nonstandard Economic Behaviors" , Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, June 2019
• "Allais, Ellsberg and Hedging" , Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Theoretical Economics, January 2017

Working Papers

• "Information Frictions and the Market for Climate Adaptation: Evidence from Index Insurance in Colombia" , Ricardo Pommer Muñoz, November 2025
• "Willingness to Accept, Willingness to Pay, and Loss Aversion" , Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg, Colin Camerer, May 2021

Published Papers

• "Representational Geometry Explains Puzzling Error Distributions in Behavioral Tasks" , Xuexin Wei, Michael Woodford, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2025
• "Jointly Efficient Encoding and Decoding in Neural Populations" , Simone Blanco Malerba, Aurora Micheli, Michael Woodford, Rava Azeredo da Silveira, PLOS Computational Biology, July 2024
• "Individual Risk Attitudes Arise From Noise in Neurocognitive Magnitude Representations" , Miguel Barretto-García, Gilles de Hollander, Marcus Grueschow, Rafael Polanía, Michael Woodford, Christian C. Ruff, Nature Human Behaviour, July 2023
• "Neurophysiological markers of emotion regulation predict efficacy of entrepreneurship education" , Pablo Egana-delSol, Xiaoxiao Sun, Paul Sajda, Scientific Reports, May 3, 2023
• "Efficient Coding of Numbers Explains Decision Bias and Noise" , Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford, Nature Human Behaviour, May 30, 2022
• "Bias and Variance of the Bayesian-Mean Decoder" , Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2021
• "Is EEG Suitable for Marketing Research? A Systematic Review" , Andrea Bazzani, Silvio Ravaioli, Leopoldo Trieste, Ugo Faraguna, Giuseppe Turchetti, Frontiers in Neuroscience, December 2020
• "Efficient Sampling and Noisy Decisions" , Joseph A. Heng, Michael Woodford, Rafael Polania, eLife, September 2020
• "Multiple Conceptions of Resource Rationality" , WeiJi Ma, Michael Woodford, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, March 11, 2020
• "Efficient Coding of Subjective Value" , Rafael Polanía, Michael Woodford, Christian C. Ruff, Nature Neuroscience, January 2019
• "How can Neuroscience inform Economics?" , Mark Dean, Ian Krajbich, Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, October 2015
• "What Can Neuroeconomics Tell us About Economic Decision Making?" , Mark Dean, Comparative Decision Making, Philip Crowley and Thomas Zentall, eds, May 2012
• "Testing the Reward Prediction Error Hypothesis with an Axiomatic Model" , Robb Rutledge, Mark Dean, Andrew Caplin, Paul Glimcher, Journal of Neuroscience, October 2010
• "Measuring Beliefs and Rewards: A Neuroeconomic Approach" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, Paul Glimcher, Robb Rutledge, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2010
• "Axiomatic Methods, Dopamine and Reward Prediction Error" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dena, Current Opinion in Neurobiology, August 2008
• "Dopamine, Reward Prediction Error, and Economics" , Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008

Working Papers

• "Adaptive Efficient Coding: A Variational Autoencoder Approach" , Guy Aridor, Francesco Grechi, Michael Woodford, May 31, 2020

Published Papers

• "Testing for spillovers in resource conservation: Evidence from a natural field experiment" , Lorenz Goette, Zhi Hao Lim, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, September 2026
• "Probabilistic Machine Learning: New Frontiers for Modeling Consumers and their Choices" , Ryan Dew, Nicolas Padilla, Lan E. Luo, Shin Oblander, Asim Ansari, Khaled Boughanmi, Michael Braun, Fred M. Feinberg, Jia Liu, Thomas Otter, Longxiu Tian, Yixin Wang, Mingzhang Yin, International Journal of Research in Marketing, June 2026
• "Retractions: Updating from Complex Information" , Duarte Gonçalves, Jonathan Libgober, Jack Willis, Review of Economic Studies, January 2026
• "Competing Bandits: The Perils of Exploration Under Competition" , Guy Aridor, Yishay Mansour, Aleksandrs Slivkins, Zhiwei Steven Wu, ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation, March 2025
• "Endogenous Precision of the Number Sense" , Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford, eLife, September 2024
• "The Language of (Non)replicable Social Science" , Michal Herzenstein, Sanjana Rosario, Shin Oblander, Oded Netzer, Psychological Science, August 2024
• "Is It the Message or the Messenger? Examining Movement in Immigration Beliefs" , Hassan Afrouzi, Carolina Arteaga, Emily Weisburst, Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, May 2024
• "Beyond Unbounded Beliefs: How Preferences and Information Interplay in Social Learning" , Navin Kartik, SangMok Lee, Tianhao Liu, Daniel Rappoport, Econometrica, 2024
• "Frontiers: Estimating the Long-Term Impact of Major Events on Consumption Patterns: Evidence from COVID-19" , Shin Oblander, Daniel Minh McCarthy, Marketing Science, September 2023
• "Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory" , Hassan Afrouzi, Spencer Y Kwon, Augustin Landier, Yueran Ma, David Thesmar, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2023
• "Strategy inference during learning via cognitive activity-based credit assignment models" , Ashwin James, Patricia Reynaud-Bouret, Giulia Mezzadri, Francesca Sargolini, Ingrid Bethus, Alexandre Muzy, Scientific Reports, June 2023
• "Stochastic Equilibria: Noise in Actions or Beliefs?" , Evan Friedman, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2022
• "Deconstructing the Filter Bubble: User Decision-Making and Recommender Systems" , Guy Aridor, Duarte Goncalves, Shan Sikdar, Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Recommender Systems, September 2020
• "Deliberately Stochastic" , Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger, Pietro Ortoleva, Gil Riella, American Economic Review, July 2019
• "Stochastic Choice and Preferences for Randomization" , Marina Agranov, Pietro Ortoleva, Journal of Political Economy, February 2017
• "Measuring Rationality with the Minimum Cost of Revealed Preference Violations" , Mark Dean, Daniel Martin, Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2016
• "Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect" , Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger, Pietro Ortoleva, Econometrica, March 2015
• "Incomplete Preferences under Uncertainty: Indecisiveness in Beliefs vs. Tastes" , Efe Ok, Pietro Ortoleva, Gil Riella, Econometrica, July 2012
• "Status Quo Bias, Multiple Priors and Uncertainty Aversion" , Pietro Ortoleva, Games and Economic Behavior, July 2010

Working Papers

• "Climated Maladaptation and the Commons: Groundwater Management in India" , Nikhil Basavappa, Ricardo Pommer Muñoz, December 2025
• "To Each Their Own: Heterogeneity in Worker Preferences for and Responses to Peer Information" , Zhi Hao Lim, August 2025
• "Imprecise Counting of Observations in Averaging Tasks Predicts Primacy and Recency Effects" , Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford, October 2024
• "‘Did You Catch the Game Last Night?’ Peer Group Effects in Sell-Side Analyst Forecasts" , Lukas F. Fischer, Edward P. Shore, April 2023
• "A Better Test of Choice Overload" , Mark Dean, Dilip Ravindran, Jörg Stoye, December 2022
• "Stochastic Choice and Noisy Beliefs in Games" , Evan Friedman, Jeremy Ward, July 2021
• "Status Quo Bias in Large and Small Choice Sets" , Mark Dean, November 2008