Economic Decision Making with Limited Attention

Published papers​

• "Experimental Tests of Rational Inattention," Mark Dean and Nathaniel Neligh, Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming.

• "Rational Inattention when Decisions Take Time," Benjamin Hébert and Michael Woodford, Journal of Economic Theory, January 2023. 

• "The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs," Brandon K. Ashinoff, Justin Buck, Michael Woodford, and Guillermo Horga, PLOS Computational Biology, December 2022.

• "Rationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon Entropy," Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, and John Leahy, Journal of Political Economy, June 2022, Vol. 130, No. 6.

• "Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion," Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, and Michael Woodford, Review of Economic Studies, July 2021, Vol. 88, Issue 4, pp. 1979-2013. 

• "Outlier Blindness: A Neurobiological Foundation for Neglect of Financial Risk," Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Michael Woodford, Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming.

• "Neighborhood-Based Information Costs," Ben Hébert and Michael Woodford, American Economics Review, October 2021, Vol. 111, No. 10, pp. 3225-55.

• "Individual Differences in the Perception of Probability," Mel Win Khaw, Luminita Stevens, and Michael Woodford, PLoS Computational Biology, April 2021, 17(4): e1008871.

• "Estimating Information Cost Functions in Models of Rational Inattention," Ambuj Dewan and Nathaniel Neligh, Journal of Economic Theory, May 2020, Vol. 187, Article No. 105011.

• "Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation and Choice," Michael Woodford, Annual Review of Economics May 2020, 12: 579-601.

• "Endogenous Quantal Response Equilibrium," Evan Friedman, Games and Economic Behavior, November 2020, Volume 124, Pages 620-643.

• "Diverse Motives for Human Curiosity," Kenji Kobayashi, Silvio Ravaioli, Adrien Baranes, Michael Woodford, and Jacqueline Gottlieb, Nature Human Behaviour, April 2019, 3: 587–595

• "Rational Inattention, Optimal Consideration Sets and Stochastic Choice," Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean and John Leahy, Review of Economic Studies, Vol 86(3), May 2019, pp. 1061-1094.

• "Temporal Discounting and Search Habits: Evidence for a Task-Dependent Relationship," Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, and Michael Woodford, Frontiers in Psychology: Decision Neuroscience, vol. 9, November 2018, art. 2102.

• "Discrete Adjustment to a Changing Environment: Experimental Evidence," Mel Win Khaw, Luminita Stevens, Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 15, December 2017, pp. 469-473.

• "Limited Attention and Status Quo Bias," Mark Dean, Özgür Kıbrıs and Yusufcan Masatlioglu, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol 169, May 2017, pp. 93-127.

• "Saticficing and Stochastic Choice," Victor Aguilar, Maria Jose Boccardi and Mark Dean, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 166, November 2016, pp. 445-482.

• "Revealed Preference, Rational Inattention and Costly Information Acquisition," Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean, American Economic Review, July 2015, 105 (7): 2183-2203.

• "Stochastic Choice: An Optimizing Neuroeconomic Model," Michael Woodford, The American Economic Review, January 2014, 104.5: 495-500.

• "The Price of Flexibility: Towards a Theory of Thinking Aversion," Pietro Ortoleva,  Journal of Economic Theory, May 2013, Vol. 148, No. 3, 903–934.

• "Prospect Theory as Efficient Perceptual Distortion," Michael Woodford, The American Economic Review, May 2012, 102.3: 41-46.

• “Search and Satisficing,” Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean and Daniel Martin), The American Economic Review, December 2011, 101 (7): 2899-2922.

• “Search, Choice and Revealed Preference,"  Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean, Theoretical Economics, January 2011, 6: 19-48.

• "Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing," Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics, June 2009, 56: S100-S124.

Working papers​

• "Sequential Sampling and Equilibrium​," Duarte Gonçalves, November 2022.

• "Imprecise Probabilistic Inference from Sequential Data," Arthur Prat-Carrabin and Michael Woodford, PsyArXiv, March 2022.

• "The Status Quo and Belief Polarization of Inattentive Agents: Theory and Experiment," Vladimir Novak, Andrei Matveenko, and Silvio Ravaioli, March 2021.

• "The Effect of Incentives on Choices and Beliefs in Games. An Experiment," Teresa Esteban-Casanelles and Duarte Gonçalves, November 2020.

• "Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts," Rava Azeredo da Silveira, Yeji Sung, and Michael Woodford, NBER Working Paper no. 28075, November 2020.

• "Rational Inattention when Decisions Take Time," Benjamin Hébert and Michael Woodford,  NBER Working Paper no. 26415, October 2019. 

• "Information Costs and Sequential Information Sampling," Benjamin Hébert and Michael Woodford,  November 2018.  

• "Rational Inattention in Continuous Time," Benjamin Hébert and Michael Woodford,  November 2018.  

• "Optimal Evidence Accumulation and Stochastic Choice," Michael Woodford, August 2016.

• “The Behavioral Implications of Rational Inattention with Shannon Entropy," Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean, August 2013.

• "Inattentive Valuation and Reference Dependent Choice," Michael Woodford, May 2012.

• "Inattention as a Source of Random Discrete Adjustments," Michael Woodford, April 2008.​

Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics

Published papers

• "Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight," Michael Woodford and Yinxi Xie, Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2022, Vol. 125, pp. 18-35.

• "Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News," Rava Azaredo da Silveira and Michael Woodford, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019, 109: 557-561.

• "Policy Options at the Zero Lower Bound when Foresight is Limited," Michael Woodford and Yinxi Xie, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019, 109: 433-437.

• "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Mariana García-Schmidt and Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, January 2019, 109: 86-120.

• "Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite," Michael Woodford, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, April 2018, 33: 1-50. 

• "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Michael Woodford, Annual Review of Economics, August 2013, 5.1: 303-346.

• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a Microfounded New Keynesian Model," Klaus Adam and Michael Woodford, Journal of Monetary Economics 59: 468-487 (2012).

• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations," Michael Woodford, American Economic Review, March 2010, 100(1):274-303.

Working papers​

• "Macroeconomic Expectations and Cognitive Noise," Yeji Sung, December 2022.

• "Selection in Information Acquisition and Monetary Non-Neutrality," Hassan Afrouzi and Choongryul Yang, April 2021.

• "Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve," Hassan Afrouzi and Choongryul Yang, December 2020.

• "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics and the Non-Neutrality of Money," Hassan Afrouzi, March 2020.

• "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Housing," Klaus Adam and Michael Woodford, CEPR Discussion Paper no. 14445, February 2020.

• "Deeper Habits," Mel Win Khaw and Oskar Zorrilla, November 2018.

​Links Between Behavioral and Economic Phenomena

Published papers

• "Econographics", Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg, and Colin Camerer, Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, January 2023. 

• “The Empirical Relationship Between Nonstandard Economic Behaviors,"  Mark Dean and Pietro Ortoleva, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, June 2019.

• “Allais, Ellsberg and Hedging” Mark Dean and  Pietro Ortoleva, Theoretical Economics, January 2017, 12:377-424.

Working papers

• "On the Relationship Between Willingness to Accept and Willingness to Pay", Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg, and Colin Camerer, May 2021. 

Neuroeconomics

Published papers​​

• "Neurophysiological markers of emotion regulation predict efficacy of entrepreneurship education," Pablo Egana-delSol, Xiaoxiao Sun and Paul Sajda, Scientific Reports, May 3, 2023.

• "Efficient Coding of Numbers Explains Decision Bias and Noise," Arthur Prat-Carrabin and Michael Woodford, Nature Human Behaviour, May 30, 2022. 

• "Bias and Variance of the Bayesian-Mean Decoder," Arthur Prat-Carrabin and Michael Woodford, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 34 (NeurIPS 2021).

• "Is EEG Suitable for Marketing Research? A Systematic Review," Andrea Bazzani, Silvio Ravaioli, Leopoldo Trieste, Ugo Faraguna, and Giuseppe Turchetti, Frontiers in Neuroscience, December 2020.

• "Efficient Sampling and Noisy Decisions," Joseph A. Heng, Michael Woodford, and Rafael Polania, eLife, September 2020, 9: e54962. 

• "Multiple Conceptions of Resource Rationality," WeiJi Ma and Michael Woodford, Behavioral and Brain Science 43: e15, posted online March 11, 2020.

• "Efficient Coding of Subjective Value," Rafael Polanía, Michael Woodford and Christian C. Ruff, Nature Neuroscience,  January 2019, 22: 134-142.

• "How can Neuroscience inform Economics?," Mark Dean and Ian Krajbich, Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, October 2015, 4: 51-57.

• "What Can Neuroeconomics Tell us About Economic Decision Making?," Mark Dean Chapter in Comparative Decision Making, Philip Crowley and Thomas Zentall, eds, May 2012.

• "Testing the Reward Prediction Error Hypothesis with an Axiomatic Model," Robb Rutledge, Mark Dean, Andrew Caplin and Paul Glimcher, Journal of Neuroscience, October 2010, 30(40): 13525-13535.

• "Measuring Beliefs and Rewards: A Neuroeconomic Approach," Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean, Paul Glimcher and Robb Rutledge, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2010, 125(3): 923-960.

• "Axiomatic Methods, Dopamine and Reward Prediction Error," Andrew Caplin and Mark Dena, Current Opinion in Neurobiology, August 2008, 18(2): 197-202.

• "Dopamine, Reward Prediction Error, and Economics," Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008 123(2): 663-701​.

Working papers​

• "Representational geometry explains puzzling error distributions in behavioral tasks," Xue-Xin Wei and Michael Woodford, posted on bioRxiv on January 4, 2023.

• "Adaptive Efficient Coding: A Variational Autoencoder Approach," Guy Aridor, Francesco Grechi, and Michael Woodford, posted on bioRxiv on May 31, 2020. 

Other

Published papers

• "Strategy inference during learning via cognitive activity-based credit assignment models," Ashwin James, Patricia Reynaud-Bouret, Giulia Mezzadri, Francesca Sargolini, Ingrid Bethus and Alexandre Muzy, Scientific Reports, June 2023.

• "Estimating the Long-Term Impact of Major Events on Consumption Patterns: Evidence from COVID-19," Shin Oblander and Daniel McCarthy, Marketing Science, forthcoming. 

• "Stochastic Equilibria: Noise in Actions or Beliefs?," Evan Friedman, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2022, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 94-142. 

• "Deconstructing the Filter Bubble: User Decision-Making and Recommender Systems," Guy Aridor, Duarte Goncalves, Shan Sikdar, Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Recommender Systems, September 2020,  82-91.

• "Stochastic Choice and Preferences for Randomization," Marina Agranov and Pietro Ortoleva, Journal of Political Economy, February 2017, 125.1: 40-68.

• "Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect," Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger and Pietro Ortoleva, Econometrica, March 2015, Vol. 83, No. 2, 693-728.

• "Incomplete Preferences under Uncertainty: Indecisiveness in Beliefs vs. Tastes," Efe Ok, Pietro Ortoleva and Gil Riella) Econometrica, July 2012,  Vol. 80, No. 4 , 1791 –1808.

• "Status Quo Bias, Multiple Priors and Uncertainty Aversion," Pietro Ortoleva, Games and Economic Behavior, July 2010, Vol. 69 pp. 411 – 424. 

Working papers​

• "‘Did You Catch the Game Last Night?’ Peer Group Effects in Sell-Side Analyst Forecasts," Lukas F. Fischer and Edward P. Shore, April 2023.

• "Beyond Unbounded Beliefs: How Preferences and Information Interplay in Social Learning," Navin Kartik, SangMok Lee, Tianhao Liu, and Daniel Rappoport, December 2022.

• "A Better Test of Choice Overload," Mark Dean, Dilip Ravindran, and Jörg Stoye, December 2022.

• "Stochastic Choice and Noisy Beliefs in Games: an Experiment," Evan Friedman and Jeremy Ward, July 2021. 

• "Learning versus Unlearning: An Experiment on Retractions," Duarte Gonçalves, Jonathan Libgober, and Jack Willis, June 2021.

• "Competing Bandits: The Perils of Exploration Under Competition," Guy Aridor, Yishay Mansour, Aleksandrs Slivkins, Zhiwei Steven Wu, March 2021.

• "Diagonal Games: A Tool for Experiments and Theory," Duarte Gonçalves, September 2020. 

• "Deliberately Stochastic," Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger, Pietro Ortoleva and Gil Riella, May 2018.

• "Status Quo Bias in Large and Small Choice Sets," Mark Dean, November 2008.